McGregor vs Holloway Tops $3 Million in Trading Volume on Kalshi and Polymarket

^{Pictured: Conor McGregor and Max Holloway}

A rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway is scheduled to take place at UFC 329 on 11 July 2026. Interest in the bout is already evident not only from the talk surrounding McGregor’s return, but also from trading activity on prediction market platforms.

The combined trading volume for the fight on Kalshi and Polymarket currently stands at around $3,04 million. Almost all of that figure comes from Kalshi, where fight markets account for $2,94 million in trading volume, while Polymarket’s total volume for the event is around $99,200.

Despite the large gap in trading volume, the implied probabilities on the two platforms are almost identical.

Holloway is considered the favourite, with both Kalshi and Polymarket pricing his chances at around 67%. McGregor is the underdog, at about 33%.

McGregor has made clear that he disagrees with that assessment. During a video call with Holloway and Joe Rogan, he said he would beat his opponent despite his long lay-off. According to McGregor, Holloway would not be able to leave a scratch on him.

For the Irishman, the fight will mark his return after a five-year absence. He last competed in the UFC in July 2021, when he lost to Dustin Poirier after suffering a leg injury. Holloway has already faced McGregor once before, in 2013, when McGregor won the bout.

Interest in the fight is also being fuelled by expectations within the UFC. Dana White previously said the McGregor vs Holloway rematch could break the promotion’s all-time gate record. The current record stands at around $21,8 million and belongs to UFC 306 / Noche UFC 2024, which was headlined by Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili.