Study: 84% of Polymarket Users Trade at a Loss

Only 15.9% of users on prediction platform Polymarket are profitable, while 84.1% incur losses, according to a study by analyst Andrey Sergeenkov. The analysis is based on Polygon network data from April 2024 to April 2026 and covers around 2.5 million addresses.

A meaningful share of profits is concentrated among a very small group of users:

• 2.1% of traders have earned more than $1,000 in total;
• 0.32% (around 8,000 addresses) have earned more than $10,000;
• 0.033% (approximately 840 addresses) have earned more than $100,000.

The monthly breakdown shows a similar pattern:

• 1.3% of users earn more than $1,000 per month;
• 0.26% earn more than $5,000;
• 0.13% earn more than $10,000.

Consistent profitability is rare. More than half of profitable traders (53%) posted gains in just one month, while 73% were active for no more than two months. Among users with profits exceeding $5,000, only 2.6% (172 addresses) traded for more than a year.

The probability of consistently earning $5,000 per month declines sharply over time:

• one month — 0.98% of users;
• two consecutive months — 0.1%;
• three months — 0.03%;
• four months — 0.015%.

The study also notes that as the platform’s user base grows, the share of profitable users declines — a trend the author attributes to an influx of less experienced participants.

Earlier, Gambling Park reported that Polymarket data has begun to be used by traders to assess the direction of oil prices.