Kalshi Plans Flight Cancellation Markets as Airlines Warn of Deliberate Disruptions

^{Grapevine International Airport, Texas, USA / © Shutterstock}

Prediction market platform Kalshi has filed to introduce new event contracts tied to flight cancellations at U.S. airports, Bloomberg reported, citing documents submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Users would be able to predict the percentage of scheduled flights canceled at a specific airport over a given period.

The contracts would be settled primarily using data from flight-tracking service FlightAware, with the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics serving as a backup source.

Kalshi already offers markets on the number of delayed and canceled flights at several U.S. airports, including John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York and Chicago O’Hare International Airport. The proposed contracts would focus on cancellations as a percentage of all scheduled flights rather than the total number of canceled services.

Airlines for America, which represents major U.S. carriers, has opposed the expansion of such markets. The trade group warned that allowing people to profit from flight cancellations could encourage some individuals to deliberately disrupt airline operations.

Paul Hudson, president of passenger advocacy group FlyersRights, also said aviation industry employees could have advance knowledge of flight delays and cancellations and use that information to trade on the markets.

Hudson added that workers could potentially cause delays deliberately in an attempt to make a profit.

Kalshi said the new markets have not yet launched and that the company is still assessing whether to proceed with them.