Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway: UFC 329 Fight Prediction

📅 Date: July 11, 2026
🕒 Time: 6:00 PM PDT (Las Vegas time)
📍 Venue: Las Vegas, United States (T-Mobile Arena)
🏆 Event: Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)

The event will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with a rematch between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway scheduled as the main event.

For the Irish fighter, it will mark his return to the Octagon after a years-long absence, making the card one of the most talked-about events on the UFC summer calendar.

Where to Bet on UFC 329

For UFC betting, it is important to choose bookmakers offering:

🥊 Extensive MMA markets
🎯 Betting options on rounds and methods of victory
⚡ Reliable live betting coverage

Top trusted bookmakers:

BONUS €130

9.1

369 |13

Identification

Cryptocurrency

Casino

Sports Streams

VIP Service

iOS

Android

CASHBACK 10%

8.8

330 |13

Identification

Cryptocurrency

Casino

Sports Streams

VIP Service

iOS

Android

BONUS €130

8.7

356 |14

Identification

Cryptocurrency

Casino

Sports Streams

VIP Service

iOS

Android

BONUS €130

8.5

203 |14

Identification

Cryptocurrency

Casino

Sports Streams

VIP Service

iOS

Android

BONUS €117

8.2

198 |12

Identification

Cryptocurrency

Casino

Sports Streams

VIP Service

iOS

Android

Conor McGregor’s Return

UFC 329 is expected to mark McGregor’s first fight after a lengthy layoff. His most recent bout took place in 2021. Since then, his comeback has been repeatedly delayed by injuries and a cancelled planned fight with Michael Chandler.

The rematch with Holloway adds to the intrigue surrounding the event. The two fighters previously met in 2013, when McGregor won by unanimous decision.

Interest in the fight is driven by several factors:

⭐ McGregor remains one of the UFC’s most commercially significant fighters.
🎯 Betting markets for his fights typically attract heightened interest from bookmakers and bettors.
🥊 McGregor remains a dangerous opponent due to his striking ability, experience in major fights and fast starts.

Max Holloway

Max Holloway is scheduled to face Conor McGregor at UFC 329. For McGregor’s return, Holloway is one of the most compelling opponents available: a former UFC champion, a familiar name to fans and a fighter with a shared history with the Irishman.

Several factors add to the intrigue:

🔥 The fight has a built-in storyline: a rematch many years after their first meeting.
🥊 It does not need a title on the line because the names involved are big enough on their own.
⭐ Holloway is an entertaining and popular fighter who has remained at the elite level of the UFC for years.

Fighter Comparison Table

Parameter	Conor McGregor	Max Holloway
Weight	~70 kg	~70 kg
Age	37	34
Height	175 cm	180 cm
Reach	188 cm	175 cm
Record	22–6–0	27–9–0

Popular Bets and Odds

Main Betting Markets

Draw — 33.00 (implied probability: 3.0%)
Max Holloway to win — 1.25 (80.0%)
Conor McGregor to win — 3.84 (26.0%)
Holloway to win in the 1X2 market — 1.273 (78.6%)
McGregor to win in the 1X2 market — 4.015 (24.9%)

Rounds and Early Finish

Fight to go the distance — No — 1.20 (83.3%)
Fight to go the distance — Yes — 4.00 (25.0%)
Fight to end in rounds 1–3 — 1.50 (66.7%)
Fight to end in rounds 4–5 or by decision — 2.62 (38.2%)

The 1xBet line clearly leans toward a scenario in which the fight ends before the final bell. A points victory is priced at 4.00 (25.0%), while a draw or technical draw is listed at 46.00 (2.2%).

When Will the Bout End

The bookmaker expects the fight is more likely to end before the later rounds. In the “When will the fight end?” market, odds are offered on the specific round in which the bout will finish:

Round 1 — 3.00 (33.3%)
Round 2 — 4.50 (22.2%)
Round 3 — 5.50 (18.2%)
Round 4 — 8.50 (11.8%)
Round 5 — 13.00 (7.7%)

The later the round, the higher the odds. This suggests that an early finish is considered more likely than a conclusion in rounds four or five.

Will the Fight End in the First Three Rounds

The line also includes a market not on the exact round, but on the broader period in which the fight will end:

Rounds 1–3 — 1.50 (66.7%)
Rounds 4–5 or decision — 2.62 (38.2%)

Here, the bookmaker is effectively comparing two scenarios: an early finish in the first three rounds versus a late finish or a judges’ decision. Based on the odds, rounds 1–3 appears to be the more expected outcome.

Holloway Round Betting

As Holloway is the favourite, the main options in the line are tied to his victory:

Holloway in Round 1 — 4.50 (22.2%)
Holloway in Round 2 — 5.50 (18.2%)
Holloway in Round 3 — 6.50 (15.4%)
Holloway in Round 4 — 9.50 (10.5%)
Holloway in Round 5 — 15.00 (6.7%)

The line also includes grouped options: Holloway to win in rounds 1–3 is priced at 1.91 (52.4%), while Holloway to win in rounds 4–5 or by decision is listed at 3.10 (32.3%).

McGregor Round Betting

The odds on a McGregor victory are higher, reflecting his underdog status:

McGregor in Round 1 — 7.00 (14.3%)
McGregor in Round 2 — 18.00 (5.6%)
McGregor in Round 3 — 36.00 (2.8%)
McGregor in Round 4 — 60.00 (1.7%)
McGregor in Round 5 — 90.00 (1.1%)

The grouped option “McGregor in rounds 1–3” is priced at 5.00 (20.0%), while “McGregor in rounds 4–5 or by decision” is listed at 11.00 (9.1%).

Method of Victory

In the method-of-victory market, the following options are available:

Win by submission — 9.00 (11.1%)
Win by decision — 4.00 (25.0%)
Draw or technical draw — 46.00 (2.2%)

In separate markets for victory by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification, Holloway has lower odds than McGregor. For example, Holloway to win by that method in the first round is priced at 5.00 (20.0%), in the second round at 6.00 (16.7%), and in the third round at 7.00 (14.3%). The corresponding options for McGregor are significantly higher at 8.50 (11.8%), 21.00 (4.8%) and 46.00 (2.2%), respectively.

McGregor vs Holloway Fight Prediction

1. Holloway to Win

This is the most straightforward pick based on the odds. Holloway is listed as a clear favourite at 1.25 in the Win (2Way) market.

2. Fight Not to Go the Distance

Odds of 1.20 suggest that the bookmaker views an early finish as the most likely scenario.

3. Fight to End in Rounds 1–3

This option is priced at 1.50 and fits the current line, with later-round finishes and a points victory offered at significantly higher odds.

4. Holloway to Win Inside the Distance in Rounds 1–3

A riskier but more specific pick on the favourite. The odds are 1.91.

Odds may change before the event. Bettors should check the latest bookmaker line before placing a wager.

Expert Prediction for UFC 329

Max Holloway enters this fight as the clear favorite. He has the edge in consistency, current form, and recent activity. Holloway has spent years facing elite-level opposition, knows how to maintain a high pace, and often wins rounds through volume striking.

The main question around McGregor is his form after such a long layoff. He has not fought since 2021, so it is difficult to assess how prepared he is for a five-round bout against an active, elite-level opponent.

✅ Best Pick — Holloway to Win at 1.25.
Holloway is a clear favorite on the betting line, and his consistency and recent activity look more important than McGregor’s star power.

🔸 Alternative Pick — Holloway to Win in Rounds 1–3 at 1.91.
This is a riskier but more specific option. It makes sense if Holloway raises the pace early and does not allow McGregor to settle into the fight after his long layoff.