Underdog Betting: How to Bet on the Dark Horse

An underdog (aka dark horse or long shot) is a team or player that has lower chances of winning than their opponent, according to the betting odds and the public opinion.

For instance, if CD Alaves has odds of 5.00 and Real Madrid 1.65, the former is a clear underdog (expected to lose), while the latter is a favorite (destined to win).

Note: One of the most amazing underdog stories is Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2015/16. They had 5000:1 odds, so a $100 bet would pay $500k.

How to Spot the Underdog

You can spot the underdog by checking the odds, which show the likelihood of each outcome. There are two main ways to spot the underdog: by looking at the fulltime result odds or the handicap sign.

• Full time result: This is when you look at the odds for the final score of the game. The underdog has the highest odds in this type of bet. This means they have the lowest chance of winning. 

Burnley is underdog vs Aston Villa

Sometimes, the odds for the underdog are so high that they seem unreal (like 8.0). But they are. This is just the bookie’s way of saying “good luck with that”.

• Handicap: This is when you look at the odds for the score of the game with a certain margin. The bookie gives the underdog a positive handicap, which is added to their final score. This means they’re given some extra help to win, but it lowers their odds. The more goals the underdog gets, the lower their odds. 

For example, a +2 handicap means that the underdog has a 2-goal edge from the get-go, but their odds might drop from 7.9 (no handicap) to 1.46 (+2 handicap).

How to spot the underdog by handicap

Note: In handicap betting, the underdog gets a “+” sign (meaning they get extra goals) next to their odds, and the margin range is usually between 4 goals.

How to Assess the Underdog’s Chances

Everyone loves a good underdog story, but how can you tell if the team with the lower odds has a chance to pull off a surprise victory? Here are some factors to consider:

• Home Boost: Playing on familiar turf can give the underdog a boost of energy, especially if they have a loyal and loud fan base cheering them on.
• Referee Impact: The officials can make or break a game with their calls, especially if they favor one side over the other. Watch out for controversial decisions that can affect the morale of the teams.
• History Matters: Sometimes, the dog has a psychological edge over their opponent, based on their previous encounters. Look for patterns or trends in the head-to-head records that can reveal the dark horse’s strengths.
• Coaching Effect: A good coach can inspire the underdog to perform beyond their expectations, as well as devise a smart game plan that can exploit the opponent’s flaws.
• Player Power: The individual talent and form of the players can make a difference in the outcome of the game. 
• It’s All in the Details: Sometimes, the game can be influenced by factors that are beyond the control: weather, field, injuries, and even the presence of VIPs or celebs. 

Did you know?

When an underdog wins, it’s called an upset. This means the underdog defied the expectations and beat the favorite. Some famous examples of upsets are Greece winning the Euro 2004 and Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson in 1990.

The greatest shock in international football history: Greece’s odds pre tournament were 150/1

Pros and Cons of Underdog Betting

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