Mbappé Is Polymarket’s Favourite to Win 2026 World Cup Golden Boot
Lina Almans
Upd 3 days ago
Comment 0
Kylian Mbappé, France national team / © Shutterstock
Polymarket has launched a prediction market on the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market focuses on the tournament’s top scorer — the player who finishes with the most goals.
At the time of writing, total trading volume in this market was close to $10 million.
Kylian Mbappé remains the market favourite, with market participants pricing his chances at 15%. Harry Kane follows on 13%.
The chasing pack includes Erling Haaland on 9%, Kai Havertz on 7.6% and Lionel Messi on 6%. Havertz is worth highlighting separately: the Germany forward has already made his mark at the tournament, scoring twice against Curaçao. Germany won the match 7–1.
At the same time, the market remains fluid. The Golden Boot race can be affected by players’ form, the fixture list, possible injuries, weather conditions and other factors. The percentages on Polymarket therefore reflect current market expectations rather than a firm forecast of the final outcome.
| Place | Player | Polymarket Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé | 15% |
| 2 | Harry Kane | 13% |
| 3 | Erling Haaland | 9% |
| 4 | Kai Havertz | 7.6% |
| 5 | Lionel Messi | 6% |
| 6 | Michael Olise | 4% |
| 7 | Lamine Yamal | 4% |
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is taking place from 11 June to 19 July. For the first time in history, the tournament is being hosted by three countries: the United States, Canada and Mexico.
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