Kalshi Withholds $54 Million in Payouts for Bets on Khamenei’s Resignation

^{Bets on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stepping down on Kalshi}

Prediction market platform Kalshi has refused to pay out bets related to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, involving roughly $54 million, according to a report by The Independent.

Interest in the market surged on Feb. 28 following reports of joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran. Traders were speculating on whether the 86-year-old Khamenei would lose his position as Iran’s supreme leader.

Kalshi had actively promoted the market. On the platform’s website and mobile app, the probability that Khamenei would leave office was shown as reaching 68%. A similar message was also posted on the platform’s social media accounts.

It was later confirmed that Iran’s supreme leader had been killed in airstrikes carried out as part of an operation called “Epic Fury.”

Following the reports, the company issued a clarification stating that the market referred specifically to a potential resignation or a peaceful transfer of power.

Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour also wrote on social media platform X that bets on the platform are not directly tied to an individual’s death. According to him, the wording that Khamenei could “leave office” did not imply death.

Despite the company’s offer to refund some transactions, the decision triggered numerous complaints from users on social media.

Earlier, Gambling Park reported that Wynn Resorts and MGM shares fall amid missile strikes in the UAE.