Kalshi Opens Trading on 2030 World Cup Winner, With Spain the Early Favorite
Lina Almans
21 July 2026
Comment 0
US prediction market platform Kalshi has opened trading on the winner of the 2030 FIFA World Cup.
The market went live overnight on July 19–20, shortly after the 2026 World Cup final. Contracts are available on 82 national teams.
Based on current trading, Spain is the leading favorite, with the market pricing its chances of winning the tournament at 17.3%.
France ranks second at 13.4%, followed by Argentina at 8.1%. Brazil and England are both at 7.9%, Germany at 6.7% and Portugal at 5.9%.
Total trading volume on the market had exceeded $306,000 at the time of publication. The figure represents the combined value of all completed trades, meaning the same contract may have changed hands several times. It should therefore not be interpreted as the total amount of money spent on contracts backing individual teams to win the tournament.
The next FIFA World Cup will run from June 8 to July 21, 2030. Most matches will be staged in Spain, Portugal and Morocco, while Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay will each host one match.
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