Why France Has Banned Prediction Markets — The Regulator’s Position

^{Pictured: Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin, President of France’s gambling regulator}

France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), said prediction market platforms are operating illegally in the country and warned users about the risks associated with their use.

According to the regulator, interest in prediction markets surged following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Polymarket recorded $3.6 billion in trading volume on election-related markets. Between January and October 2025, total transaction volumes across the largest platforms exceeded $27.9 billion.

The ANJ said such services effectively function as round-the-clock betting platforms offering binary “yes/no” outcomes. At the same time, they present themselves as investment tools, creating a perception of control that may encourage more frequent participation. Unlike France’s regulated gambling market, these platforms do not impose betting limits, time restrictions or player protection safeguards.

The regulator also warned of manipulation risks, noting that if individuals can both place a wager and influence the outcome of an event, this creates a financial incentive for misconduct.

In France, the ANJ has previously concluded that Polymarket’s services may constitute unauthorised gambling offerings. In late 2024, the platform introduced geo-blocking for users in France. Polymarket subsequently ceased accepting bets from French users. Similar measures were later adopted by Kalshi.

The ANJ added that access to Polymarket is restricted in several other jurisdictions, including EU member states, as well as Australia and Colombia. In France, the regulator urged users to exercise caution.

Gambling Park reported that Portugal seeks to block Polymarket over election betting.