Portugal Seeks to Block Polymarket Over Election Betting

^{The screenshot shows a spike in Antonio José Seguro’s chances of winning to 97% (light blue line)}

Portugal’s gambling regulator SRIJ has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to cease operations in the country. According to leading national outlet Renascença, the regulator became aware of the platform’s activity in Portugal and considers it to be operating illegally.

The move followed a surge in activity on Polymarket linked to the country’s presidential election on January 18. At 6:30 p.m., the probability of António José Seguro winning stood at 68.6%, but rose sharply to 93.2% within an hour. Over the same period, the implied chances of Cotrim de Figueiredo fell from 22% to 2.5%.

Renascença reported that more than €5 million was wagered across various markets between the spike in Seguro’s odds and the publication of the first official results.

Polymarket users now appear confident in the outcome, with the platform currently pricing Seguro’s chances of victory at 97%.

A total of €120 million was wagered on the main market, “Who will become president?”

Despite the regulator’s order and the expiry of a 48-hour deadline, Polymarket remains accessible in Portugal. SRIJ is considering enforcing a block through internet service providers. The regulator also said it does not guarantee refunds for users who have already placed bets, as Polymarket is not a licensed operator.

Portugal’s actions reflect a broader global trend. Polymarket has previously faced restrictions and blocks in several countries across Europe and Asia, including a ban in Ukraine. Gambling Park has also reported that Three Polymarket Accounts Bet on Maduro’s Removal Before His Arrest and Made $630,000.