40 Kalshi Users Won on a Rare Outcome at the 2026 Oscars

^{Pictured: Winners in the Best Live Action Short Film category for the films “Two People Exchange Saliva” and “The Singers”}

Users of the prediction market platform Kalshi capitalized on a rare betting opportunity during the 2026 Academy Awards ceremony, profiting from a highly unlikely outcome, Variety reports.

The case concerns the Best Live Action Short Film category, where a separate contract was available for a tie. The probability of such an outcome was estimated at around 1%, yet approximately 40 users purchased these contracts.

In the end, the award was shared by two films — “The Singers” and “Two People Exchange Saliva.” This marked only the seventh tie in Oscar history.

According to the platform, total trading volume on this outcome amounted to about $2,365. With odds of 101.0 (equivalent to a 100-to-1 payout), total payouts on winning contracts may have exceeded $230,000. As a result, even relatively small stakes generated substantial returns.

A different approach is used on the competing platform Polymarket: in the event of a tie, the outcome listed first alphabetically is settled as the winner. In this case, “The Singers” was declared the winning selection, while bets on the second film were settled as losses.

Overall, the short film market attracted limited interest in Oscar betting markets. Trading volume on Kalshi reached about $440,000, compared with tens of millions of dollars in more popular categories such as Best Picture.

Previously, Gambling Park reported on a study showing that users of Kalshi and Polymarket perform on par with professional analysts in forecasting accuracy.