Study: Kalshi and Polymarket Users Match Professional Analysts in Forecast Accuracy

Users of prediction markets demonstrate forecasting accuracy comparable to that of professional analysts when estimating a range of economic indicators, The New York Times reported, citing a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

The researchers analyzed five years of data from the Kalshi platform and concluded that, on average, its users predict certain economic indicators as accurately as analysts at banks and investment firms.

According to the study, market participants show similar accuracy in forecasting U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and, in some cases, provide more precise estimates of inflation.

Jonathan Wright, a co-author of the study and professor at Johns Hopkins University, said aggregating the views of a large number of participants allows diverse information to be incorporated into forecasts, resulting in more robust predictions.

A separate study by economists at London Business School and Yale University found that users of the Polymarket platform, on average, more accurately predicted companies’ financial results, including earnings, than investment analysts.

Yale professor Thijs Jensen attributed the findings to incentive structures, noting that market participants use their own funds and have a direct financial stake in the accuracy of their forecasts. By contrast, analysts may factor in their firms’ commercial interests and align their projections with broader market expectations.

Gambling Park reported that Kalshi had accused the authors of an analytical report on financial losses among prediction market users of extortion.