Kalshi Accuses Analysts Behind Critical Report of Extortion

^{Juice Reel CEO Ricky Gold and Citizens analyst Jordan Bender}

Kalshi accused analytics firm Juice Reel of extortion following the publication of a report claiming that users of prediction markets lose more money than customers of traditional bookmakers, according to Bloomberg. Kalshi later walked back the accusation, saying it no longer believed extortion had taken place, while maintaining that the report’s conclusions were inaccurate.

Background of the Dispute

The dispute emerged after the release of a report by investment bank Citizens, which was based on data provided by Juice Reel. The study found that users of Kalshi and other prediction market platforms incur higher average losses during their first three months of activity than customers of traditional sportsbook operators.

Following the report’s publication, Kalshi said the data used in the analysis were unreliable. A company representative also claimed that Juice Reel had allegedly offered to alter the study’s conclusions in exchange for payment.

Kalshi later softened its position. In an updated statement, the company said it continued to disagree with the report’s findings but, “after additional review, does not believe that extortion occurred.”

Findings of the Report

According to the Citizens analysis, prediction market users recorded higher relative losses during their first three months than traditional sportsbook customers.

The report noted in particular that:

• among the quarter of prediction market users with the highest losses, average losses amounted to about 28% of total stakes during the first 90 days;
• on traditional betting platforms*, losses for a comparable group over the same period averaged about 11%.

Positions of the Parties

Juice Reel chief executive Ricky Gold said the company stood by the accuracy of its data and had not offered Kalshi any arrangements in exchange for changing the report’s conclusions.

He said that Kalshi representatives had instead contacted Juice Reel requesting that the firm publicly question the accuracy of the analysis.

“We support transparency and believe users should have access to real statistics,” Gold said, adding that a subsequent review of the data had found no errors.

Citizens analyst Jordan Bender also reaffirmed confidence in the report’s conclusions, noting that the analysis was based on transactional data.

Kalshi said its internal statistics “directly contradict” the report’s results, arguing that user losses are lower than those suggested in the study, though it did not disclose specific figures.

Gambling Park previously reported that Kalshi, Robinhood, and other platforms are forming a coalition to defend prediction markets in the United States.

* In the report, such platforms are defined as regulated bookmakers, offshore betting operators, fantasy sports services, and sweepstakes casinos.