Eurovision Odds: Are Bookmakers Accurate? 18 Years of Betting Stats

When it comes to Eurovision, betting odds always spark plenty of media buzz and are a key factor for fans making their own predictions. But, as the data shows, bookies don’t always nail the final outcome. Sometimes, their top favorites don’t even crack the top 10, while underdogs take home the win.

We dove into 18 years of Eurovision betting odds to see just how often the bookmakers miss the mark.

2007 ❌

In 2007, bookies were all about DJ Bobo from Switzerland with his song “Vampires Are Alive.” They saw him as the sure winner, but he didn’t even make the top 10 — he came in 20th! The actual winner? Marija Šerifović from Serbia with “Molitva,” a song that bookmakers had put in third place.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2008 ✅ 

Eurovision 2008 was an easy win for the bookies. They all predicted Russia’s Dima Bilan would win with “Believe” — and they nailed it.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2009 ✅

In 2009, after Dima Bilan’s win, Eurovision moved to Moscow. The clear favorite according to oddsmakers was Norway’s Alexander Rybak performing “Fairytale.” His win was backed by bookmakers at odds of 2.5, making him the top pick. And, true to form, Rybak delivered.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2010 ✅ 

The odds were spot-on for Lena Meyer-Landrut from Germany with her song “Satellite.” Everyone saw it coming.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2011 ❌

In 2011, Germany’s Lena Meyer-Landrut, the 2010 winner, competed again, this time on home turf in Düsseldorf. However, the betting markets didn’t favor her for a back-to-back victory. Instead, France’s Amaury Vassili was pegged as the frontrunner to take it all with odds at 5.0. But the predictions missed the mark. 

The real champions were the duo from Azerbaijan, Ell & Nikki, who won with their song “Running Scared”.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2012 ✅ 

Baku hosted Eurovision 2012, and it was Loreen from Sweden with Euphoria. The odds said she would win, and she did.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2013 ✅ 

Another year, another correct prediction. Bookies saw Denmark’s Emmelie de Forest winning with “Only Teardrops,” and they were right.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2014 ❌ 

This one caught everyone by surprise. Conchita Wurst from Austria won with “Rise Like a Phoenix,” even though she wasn’t even in the top 15 of the bookies’ predictions. Aram MP3 from Armenia was their top pick, but he only placed 4th.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2015 ✅ 

In 2015, Sweden was once again the bookmakers’ favorite to take home the Eurovision trophy, just like they had predicted 2 years earlier with Loreen. This time, it was Måns Zelmerlöw representing Sweden with his song “Heroes.” The betting odds had him as the clear frontrunner at 2.5, and the predictions came through flawlessly. 

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2016 ❌ 

In 2016, Eurovision was hosted in Stockholm, and all eyes were on Russia’s Sergey Lazarev, who came into the contest as the favorite, according to betting odds. But the actual results didn’t go according to plan. Instead, it was Jamala from Ukraine with her song “1944” that captured both the audience and jury’s votes.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2017 ❌

In 2017, bookmakers were close but still missed the mark. Bulgarian singer Kristian Kostov was the favorite going in, with odds of 2.75. While he delivered a strong performance, securing second place, the win went to Portugal’s Salvador Sobral with the ballad “Amar pelos dois.” Sobral had slightly longer odds at 2.87 but ended up taking home the trophy.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2018 ❌ 

Bookies were close but no cigar. They predicted Cypriot singer Eleni Foureira would take the win with her fiery performance of “Fuego”. However, it was Israel’s Netta who ended up victorious with her quirky, energetic hit “Toy”.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

2019 ✅ 

After three years of off-target predictions, the bookmakers finally nailed it in 2019. Duncan Laurence from the Netherlands was the clear favorite for his song “Arcade.” This time, both the viewers and juries agreed with the betting markets, crowning him the winner.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2020

The contest was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2021 ✅ 

In 2021, Eurovision returned to Rotterdam, and the bookmakers were spot-on. The edgy Italian rock band Måneskin, with their track “Zitti e Buoni,” was the clear favorite going into the competition. They had odds of 3.0 on Betfair, and the results matched the predictions.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2022 ✅ 

Eurovision 2022, held in Turin, Italy, brought no surprises either. Long before the contest began, betting markets had crowned Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra as the favorite to win, largely influenced by global geopolitical events. The Ukrainian group took home the title with their track “Stefania,” just as everyone expected.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2023 ✅

Eurovision 2023 moved to Liverpool since Ukraine, last year’s winner, couldn’t host the event. From the get-go, Sweden’s Loreen — already a Eurovision legend from her 2012 win — was the odds-on favorite with her song “Tattoo.” Betfair listed her at 1.57 to win, and she delivered, becoming the first woman to win Eurovision twice.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be right.

2024 ❌ 

The 68th edition of Eurovision kicked off on May 7, 2024, in Malmö, Sweden. By the time the semi-finals wrapped up, most bookies had Croatia’s Baby Lasagna as the clear frontrunner, thanks to his catchy track “Rim Tim Tagi Dim.” However, the final results flipped the script — Swiss artist Nemo pulled off an upset, winning with his track “The Code,” despite Betfair giving him odds of 5.0 and ranking him as a long shot for third place.

Outcome: The bookmakers’ prediction turned out to be wrong.

Overall Results Over 18 Years

In percentage terms, that’s 58.8% of predictions hitting the mark versus 41.2% that didn’t.