$/€ Value Betting: How to Find Betting Opportunities
Lina Almans
14 June 2023
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What Is Value Betting
Value betting is a strategy in sports betting where you look for odds that are too good to pass up, based on your gut feeling.
✅ To beat the bookie is to find a value bet.
If you’re someone who watches sports closely and can break down factors like team form, injuries, and motivation, then value betting might be your thing.
The idea behind value betting is to outsmart the bookie by finding cases where they’ve messed up the odds on a certain outcome.
Formula for Calculating Value Bets
How do you know if a bet is worth it? Here’s a simple formula to help you spot it:
Bookmaker’s Odds (O) × Your Own Probability (P) > 1
For example, let’s say the bookmaker’s odds for a home team win are 2.5 (40%), but you know better and think the real odds are 65%.
You can do the math like this: (O) × (P) = 2.5 × 0.65 = 1.625
If the result is more than 1, like in this case, then the bet is a value bet and that’s how you cash in!
Pros and Cons of Value Betting
Like any strategy or tactic, value betting has its upsides and downsides.
| Pros of Value Betting | Cons of Value Betting |
| Killer strategy that works | Hard to spot value bets |
| Can beat the bookies at their own game | Takes time and work |
| Potential for long-term profits | Long-term approach with many bets |
| No worries about getting banned | Can’t always trust your predictions |
Where to Find Value Bets
To spot value bets, you can use several methods. Here are some popular ones:
| Method | Description |
| DIY Research | Don’t just wager blindly. Stats, injuries, and motivation matter. |
| Watch the Odds | If the odds start to drop, it means you found a value bet. Look for bookies with the original odds. |
| Use Value Betting Tools | You don’t have to do it all by yourself. There are online tools, like BetBurger. |
| Lock in Arbitrage Bets | Arbitrage bets are when you can profit no matter what. That’s where the value is. |
