Papal Election Begins. Bookies Still Bad at Predicting Popes

Today, the papal conclave officially opened behind closed doors at the Apostolic Palace in Vatican City. All eyes are now on the 135 cardinals tasked with selecting the 267th head of the Catholic Church. The process isn’t just captivating for the global Catholic community — it’s drawing in waves of bettors.

Bookmakers — Not Great at This Game

Bookies opened markets on the next pope well before the death of Pope Francis, following early reports of serious respiratory illness. Once the Vatican officially confirmed his passing, betting volumes surged and media outlets started using sportsbook lines as shorthand for frontrunners.

But history suggests betting companies don’t have a great record when it comes to calling the outcome of conclaves. After Pope Benedict XVI stepped down in 2013, bookmakers failed to even shortlist his eventual successor — Argentinian Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who would go on to take the name Pope Francis.

Pictured: Jorge Mario Bergoglio

The 2013 Conclave

On March 8, 2013 —days before the conclave convened on March 12–13 — Ghana’s Peter Turkson was the betting favorite, priced at 4.0. Other high-probability picks included Milan’s Cardinal Angelo Scola (4.5), Vatican Secretary of State Tarcisio Bertone (4.5), and Canada’s Cardinal Marc Ouellet (10.0). Bergoglio — the eventual pope — didn’t even make the boards. Still, he ended up elected.

The 2005 Conclave

In 2005, after the death of Pope John Paul II, bookmakers once again misread the field. German Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger — later Benedict XVI — opened as a long shot with odds of 13.0. The early board was filled with names like Angelo Scola, Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, and Honduras’ Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga.

But right before the conclave began, bookies started adjusting. Ratzinger’s line moved down to 4.0. In the end, they managed to get the call right.

The 2025 Conclave

Fast-forward to this week’s vote: Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin leads the boards at 3.5, according to Oddschecker. Close behind are Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (4.5) and Italy’s Matteo Zuppi (8.0). It won’t be long before we see whether the odds boards are finally on target—or due for another miss.