Israel Probes Suspected Insider Betting on Polymarket

Israeli law enforcement agencies are reviewing information about the possible use of classified intelligence in placing bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, broadcaster Kan News reported.

The case involves an anonymous user who in June 2025 placed a series of large wagers on events related to Israel’s military operation against Iran. The user bet tens of thousands of dollars across several markets.

Specifically, the bets included predictions that Israel would strike Iran on a Friday, that the attack would begin before the end of June 2025, and that an announcement on the conclusion of the operation against Iran would be made before July. All of those predictions proved accurate.

The issue of potential involvement by an individual with access to non-public information was discussed within the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet, according to the report. However, at this stage, it was decided not to open a formal investigation.

The developments follow a separate incident in early January 2026, when a Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 by betting on the removal from power of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before the start of a U.S. military operation. That case raised questions about the potential use of insider information.

Subsequently, U.S. Representative Dina Titus sent a letter to Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan, calling on the platform to disclose what measures it uses to prevent betting based on non-public information.