1 in 8 Million: Expert Breaks Down the Real Odds of Winning the Lottery

Financial adviser Oleg Zotov told Banki.ru that the probability of a major lottery win for an average person is effectively close to zero. He said this is not a matter of a “small chance,” but of odds so extreme that they are difficult to grasp intuitively.

To illustrate the point, Zotov offered an analogy: imagine a vast field sown with wheat, where one must find a single pre-marked grain on the first attempt. That, he said, is roughly comparable to the chances of hitting a jackpot.

As a more everyday comparison, Zotov added that the likelihood of winning a major lottery prize is lower than encountering an exact lookalike on the street or surviving a meteorite strike.

The figures support this assessment. In a “6 out of 45” lottery, the probability of matching all numbers is about 1 in 8 million. In a “5 out of 36” format, the odds are roughly 1 in 1,5 million.

In some lotteries, the probability falls to between 1 in 200 million and 1 in 300 million. Buying a single ticket per week, a player would, statistically, have to wait tens of thousands of years to win.

According to Zotov, only two factors determine the final odds:

• The combinatorics: the more numbers involved in a draw and the more that must be matched, the lower the probability.
• The lottery format. Instant lotteries offer higher chances but relatively small prizes, while number-based lotteries feature massive jackpots paired with minimal odds.

Zotov also dismissed common myths. “Lucky” numbers, birth dates, prayers, fortune-telling, the place or time of purchase do not affect outcomes. Nor are there “hot” or “cold” numbers: each draw is independent of the previous one, and a lottery machine, like a flipped coin, has no memory.

The only formal way to increase the odds is to buy more tickets. While the probability rises in proportion to spending, it remains extremely low. The same applies to group play: the chance of winning improves, but any prize must be shared.

Gambling Park notes that the expert’s main conclusion is straightforward: lotteries should be treated purely as entertainment, not as a way to make money. The recommended approach is to set a spending limit in advance and adhere to it strictly.