Impeachment, Prison, or Apology: Polymarket Offers Bets on Trump–Musk Conflict

^{Pictured: Donald Trump and Elon Musk}

Polymarket has wasted no time jumping on the headline-grabbing social media spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, launching over 20 prediction markets tied to potential outcomes of the feud between the President and the world’s richest man.

With Musk openly backing calls to impeach the sitting U.S. President, the betting platform quickly introduced a market gauging the likelihood of such a move.

So far, nearly $651,000 has been wagered on the impeachment market. The consensus among users? Trump isn’t going anywhere before the end of 2025. The betting odds of him being removed from office currently sit at 11%.

During the online exchange, Musk also floated the idea of launching a new political party — another scenario Polymarket users are now betting on. But once again, the odds aren’t in the tech mogul’s favor:

• Chance of a new party launching by June 30: 5%
• Chance of it happening by December 31: 20%

That market has already drawn over $179,000 in total bets.

One of the more tongue-in-cheek options now available: “Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July?” Over $209,000 has been placed so far, with the odds of an unfollow currently hovering around 28%.

Among the more extreme outcomes up for grabs, users can also bet on “Will Trump jail Elon Musk?”

That particular scenario isn’t getting much traction — bettors have given it just a 4% chance.

Meanwhile, Polymarket is also offering odds on a potential de-escalation: “Will Trump apologize to Elon by Monday?” But few seem to believe that peace is on the table — this market is pricing in just a 2% chance, even as wagers exceed $252,000.

In total, 21 prediction markets are currently live on Polymarket that either directly or indirectly revolve around the Trump–Musk conflict.

The clash erupted after President Trump expressed his surprise and frustration over Musk’s criticism of a major budget bill. Musk, who contributed more than $250 million to Trump’s campaign, fired back, accusing the President of ingratitude — and claiming Trump couldn’t have won without his support.

Polymarket previously made headlines by offering odds on whether French President Emmanuel Macron would divorce his wife this year.