Arbitrage Betting: The Ultimate Guide on How to Make Surebets

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Lina Almans

19 September 2023

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Sports Arbitrage Betting, Surebet

Arbitrage betting (also known as surebets or arbs) is when you place bets on mutually exclusive outcomes of the same event across different bookies.

✅ By the way, mutually exclusive outcomes in arbs are also called ways (2-way, 3-way, 4-way, etc.).

Arbing in sports betting is a type of tactic that eliminates any risk. The idea is simple: you lock in a guaranteed profit no matter who wins or loses.

For example, let’s say a tennis game between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. There is no draw in tennis, so there are two possible outcomes: victory of one tennis player and loss of another.

  • Nadal’s victory, Federar’s defeat
  • Federar’s victory, Nadal’s defeat

One bookie gives 2.4 odds for Roger Federer to win and the other gives 2.1 odds for Rafael Nadal to win. If you bet $300 on both teams to win, you’ll make a profit no matter who wins.

A surebet example in tennis
A surebet example in tennis

OUTCOME

ODDS

CALCULATION

PROFIT

Federer

2,4

$180*2,4 = $336

$36

Nadal

2,1

$160*2,1 = $336


$36

We always win — we bet on both players with different bookies. If one bet loses, the other one wins.

How to Calculate the Arb?

Arbitrage Percentage = (100 / Odds 1) + (100 / Odds 2) + … + (100 / Odds n),

  • where n is the number of ways

✅ If the arbitrage percentage is less than 100%, you have an arb.

For example, remember the tennis match between Federer and Nadal that we told you about? So, the arb percentage is:

Arbitrage Percentage = (100 / 2.1) + (100 / 2.4) = 47.61 + 41.66 = 89.27%

Since the arbitrage percentage is less than 100%, this is an arb opportunity.

How to calculate the bet amount for each arb outcome (ways)?

W = 1 / Odd / T * B,

  • T is total probability of outcomes in decimal expression
  • B is total stake

Don’t want to calculate the arb yourself? Use our arb calculator. Just enter the odds and the stake, and it will do the math for you.

How to Find Sports Arbitrage?

  1. Calculate yourself (using the formulas above or using a surebet calculator)
  2. Use arb scanners (Arbster, Surebet, BMBets, OddsShopper, RebelBetting)

Arbs and Ways in Sports Bets: Examples

Most arbs have 2 ways, but some can have more. The more ways an arb has, the harder it is to find it. Here are some examples of arbs with different numbers of ways:

WAYS IN SUREBET

SPORTS

EXAMPLE

2-Way

Basketball

  • Team A wins

  • Team B wins

3-Way

Football

  • Home win

  • Draw

  • Away win

4-Way

Tennis

  • Exact score: 0:3

  • Exact score: 3:0

  • Exact score: 2:1

  • Exact score: 1:2

5-Way

Football

  • Exact score 0:0

  • Exact score 0:1

  • Exact score 1:0

  • Exactly 2 goals

  • Over 2.5

Arbitrage in Sports: What Causes It?

Sports arbitrage happens when one bookie’s odds are different from the rest. Here are some reasons why:

  1. Bookie’s blunder. They screw up their odds on purpose or by mistake
  2. Odds lag. Some bookies update their odds faster or slower than others
  3. Heavy action. A huge wager on one team shifts the odds at one bookie. The rest may not adjust in time

But arbs don’t last long. Bookies watch each other and the betting action to fix their odds quickly.

How Bookmakers React to Arbers?

Betting on arbs is not prohibited, but in most cases, bookmakers do not welcome arbers because this tactic is a win-win and does not carry any risks of losing. Therefore, arbers often have their accounts blocked, their limits cut, or their bets cancelled.

Arbitrage Betting: Pros and Cons

PROS

CONS

RISK-FREE PROFIT

No matter the outcome, there is a positive return.

BOOKIE'S HATE

Bookmakers may limit or ban arbers.

NO SKILL

No need to analyze the game or the teams.

TIME PRESSURE

Arbs disappear quickly as the odds change.

FAQ

What is Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage betting is when you place bets on opposite outcomes of an event across different bookies and lock in a guaranteed profit. No matter who wins or loses, you win.

What are the risks of Arbitrage Betting?

Arbitrage betting has risks such as line movements, bet cancellation, account limitation, and human error. These can make you lose money or get banned by bookies.

How much profit can I make from Arbitrage Betting?

The profit depends on how much you bet, how often you find arbs, and how big the arbs are. Usually, arbs have low profit margins, from 0% to 5%.