Polymarket User Earns Over $133,000 from Weather Predictions

A user of the prediction platform Polymarket, operating under the nickname ColdMath, has earned more than $133,000 over six months from bets linked to weather forecasts.

The account was created in November 2025. During this period, ColdMath executed more than 6,700 trades. The largest single gain amounted to $12,400, while open positions at the time of publication were estimated at around $36,000.

ColdMath’s strategy relies less on large one-off wins and more on a high volume of small trades. The account primarily places bets on temperature outcomes in cities including New York, Paris, London, and Moscow. In most cases, the user selects outcomes already considered highly likely, generating modest profits from each position.

In one example, a bet on temperature in New York amounted to about $7,000, with a profit of less than $300. Such trades are repeated dozens or even hundreds of times, cumulatively producing the overall return.

Interest in weather-related betting has increased in recent months. In France, authorities have launched an investigation into possible manipulation of weather data used to settle Polymarket bets. The probe was prompted by sudden temperature spikes recorded at a weather station at Charles de Gaulle Airport, which coincided with large payouts. Industry observers have suggested the possibility of physical interference with the sensor, including the use of a heat source such as a hairdryer or lighter.

Gambling Park previously reported that 84% of Polymarket users trade at a loss.