Kalshi Urges US Regulator Not to Treat Prediction Markets as Casinos

^{Pictured: Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder and chief operating officer of Kalshi}

Kalshi has urged the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to draw a clear distinction between prediction markets and casino-style gaming, as well as other forms of gambling in which outcomes are determined entirely by chance or by the structure of the game itself. The company set out its position in a letter submitted by co-founder and chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara as part of the regulator’s review of future rules for prediction market platforms.

Kalshi argues that contracts on real-world events, including sports, elections, awards and economic indicators, should not be treated like roulette, slot machines, lotteries and similar products. The company proposed defining casino-style gaming as games of pure chance.

The letter says sporting events, elections, awards and other real-world events differ from such forms of gambling because their outcomes depend on human actions, skill, judgement, performance or voting, rather than chance alone.

Kalshi argues that such events should not be placed in the same category as casino games.

Lopes Lara said the CFTC should support the development of a broad range of real-world event contracts while also setting clear boundaries for controversial subjects. Kalshi identified terrorism, assassinations, wars and casino-style gambling as areas where firm limits may be appropriate.

Kalshi also supported safeguards for prediction market participants, including self-exclusion, deposit limits, loss limits, risk disclosures, age verification, restrictions on participation by minors and limits on advertising that could mislead users.

Gambling Park notes that the question of casino-style products is part of a broader debate over the status of prediction markets. Kalshi and other companies in the sector have faced criticism over the similarity of their products to gambling.