$/€ After News of Pope Francis’ Passing, Polymarket Opens Betting on His Successor
Kate Marshal
21 April 2025
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Pictured: Pope Francis
Today, April 21, multiple media outlets reported the passing of Pope Francis at the age of 88.
The pontiff had been seriously ill in recent months. Back in mid-February, he was hospitalized with what was initially diagnosed as a respiratory infection, later confirmed to be early-stage bilateral pneumonia. He was placed on a ventilator multiple times as his condition worsened.
Crypto-based prediction market Polymarket — already under fire in the past for profiting off sensitive world events — was quick to spin up new betting odds in light of the breaking news.
Users on the platform can now place bets on who will be named the next Pope.
As of now, the betting favorites are Italy’s Cardinal Pietro Parolin, leading the board with a 37% implied probability, and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, close behind at 32%.
All other names on the slate currently sit below 7% odds.
Polymarket has also opened a separate line titled “What continent will next Pope be from?”. Asia is leading that market with a 57% chance, followed by Europe at 41%.
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