Gambling-Park Study: Polymarket Leads in Europe, Kalshi in the US

Kalshi and Polymarket are two major prediction market platforms, but their popularity varies significantly from country to country. Gambling Park analyzed Google Trends data from the past year to compare which platform attracts more search interest in different markets.

The table below shows the average search interest index over the past year. The higher the number, the more often users searched for the platform in a specific country. These figures reflect search interest only and do not represent the number of users or trading volume.

Among the countries analyzed, the United States was the only market where Kalshi had a higher search interest than Polymarket. However, the difference between the two platforms remains small.

The picture is different in Europe, where Polymarket has a clear lead. The platform has higher search interest in the UK, France, and Germany, as well as in other European markets, including Ireland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Denmark, and Sweden.

Google Trends data shows higher search interest for Polymarket than Kalshi in France over the past year

At the same time, Kalshi has shown faster growth in search interest:

• United States: Kalshi +600% year-on-year, Polymarket +160%;
• United Kingdom: Kalshi +800%, Polymarket +350%;
• France: Kalshi +1600%, Polymarket +650%;
• Germany: Kalshi +2500%, Polymarket +300%.

However, Kalshi’s higher growth rates are largely linked to a lower starting point. Polymarket still maintains stronger search popularity in most markets outside the US.

Regulation also differs across countries. In the US, both platforms operate under regulatory oversight. In Europe, approaches vary: in France, the local regulator considers such services to be unlicensed gambling activities and has warned users about potential risks. In the UK and Germany, the regulatory status of prediction markets remains less clear.