^{Pictured: Rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs}

Last week, a high-profile federal case against rapper and music producer Sean Combs (better known as Diddy) started in Manhattan court.

He faces a range of serious criminal charges, including rape, sex trafficking, forced prostitution, and racketeering.

If the case were being heard in a state that allows capital punishment, the charges could potentially carry the death penalty. But in New York, the maximum sentence for these offenses is life in prison.

Media outlets note that with multiple civil suits and a sprawling investigation, the legal process could stretch out for months, meaning a final verdict in Combs’ case may still be a long way off.

Not surprisingly, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket has seized on the case, opening several betting markets tied to potential outcomes of the trial. Among them:

• “Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?”

More than $28,000 has been wagered so far. It’s a binary market — Yes or No — and most bettors are leaning toward a guilty verdict (the “Yes” side is trading at an implied probability of 81%).

• “Diddy prison time?”

This market has seen about $25,000 in action. Bettors are currently favoring a sentence between 20–30 years (25% probability) or 10–20 years (17%). A small share believe Diddy might avoid prison altogether (6%).

• “Diddy guilty of all charges?”

Again, it’s a Yes/No market. While some expect convictions, most bettors don’t believe he’ll be found guilty on every single count — just 16% are betting on a full sweep of charges. Over $82,000 has been wagered here.

• “Will Diddy be sentenced to life in prison?”

This outcome isn’t gaining much traction with Polymarket users. The betting odds for a life sentence sit at just 10% (only around $7,000 has been wagered).

• “Who will Trump pardon in 2025?”

Despite not yet being convicted, Diddy has already made his way onto Polymarket’s list of potential presidential pardons if Donald Trump wins in 2024. The chances of that happening in 2025? Just 6%, according to bettors.