Kane and Yamal Emerge as Ballon d’Or Favorites as Messi’s Odds Fall to 6% After 2026 World Cup Final
Kate Marshal
20 July 2026
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Pictured: Lamine Yamal
Harry Kane has once again become the leading contender for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. His implied probability of winning, based on trading activity on prediction markets, stands at 37% on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Kane’s closest rival is Lamine Yamal. His chances are currently priced at 36% on Polymarket and 32% on Kalshi, leaving only a few percentage points between the two frontrunners.
Rodri ranks third on Kalshi with a 20% chance, while Kylian Mbappé holds third place on Polymarket at 11%.
The market shifted following the World Cup final, in which Spain defeated Argentina 1-0. Ferran Torres scored the decisive goal in extra time.
Before the match, Lionel Messi had been the market favorite. His chances on Polymarket were estimated at around 40%, compared with approximately 33% for Yamal and 17% for Kane. On Kalshi, Messi was priced at 36%, Yamal at 29% and Kane at 22%.
Following Argentina’s defeat, Messi’s probability of winning on Polymarket fell to 6%. The Argentine is no longer among the top three contenders on either platform.
Trading volume on Polymarket’s market has exceeded $11.4 million while Kalshi has recorded $2.7 million. Combined trading volume across the two platforms stands at roughly $14.1 million.
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