Messi Overtakes Kane as Ballon d’Or Favorite on Polymarket and Kalshi

^{Pictured: Lionel Messi}

Lionel Messi has emerged as the leading favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or following Argentina’s victory over England in the World Cup semifinals, according to prediction-market pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Argentina beat England 2-1 to reach the World Cup final for the second consecutive tournament. The 39-year-old Messi provided two assists.

Harry Kane had led the Polymarket market before the semifinal. On July 15, his implied probability of winning the award stood at around 47%, compared with 17% for Messi.

Following England’s defeat, the Argentine overtook Kane to move into first place.

Messi is now priced at a 41% chance of winning the Ballon d’Or on Polymarket. Spain international Lamine Yamal ranks second at 30%, followed by Kane at 17%.

Ousmane Dembélé is priced at 3%, while Kylian Mbappé stands at 2%. All other contenders have an implied probability of no more than 1%. Total trading volume on the Polymarket market has reached $7.94 million.

Messi also leads the market on US prediction platform Kalshi, although his implied probability is lower there at 36%. Yamal is priced at 26%, Kane at 22%, and Rodri at 5%. Mbappé stands at 4% and Dembélé at 3%. All other candidates are below 1%.

Trading volume on the Kalshi market has reached approximately $1.94 million.

Messi, Yamal and Kane therefore make up the top three contenders on both platforms. A victory for Messi would give him the ninth Ballon d’Or of his career.