Bookies: Trump’s Re-election Odds Jump 10% After Assassination Attempt
Kate Marshal
16 July 2024
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An assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania has significantly altered bookmakers’ predictions regarding his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.
Even before the attempt, Trump’s odds of returning to the White House were high, at around 64%. However, in the wake of the failed assassination attempt, his chances have risen to nearly 74%.
This dramatic shift in betting odds places Trump firmly at the top of the list of most likely winners of the 2024 presidential election.
Current President Joe Biden, who had reclaimed second place in the bookmakers’ rankings even before the assassination attempt, remains in that position, pushing Vice President Kamala Harris down a spot. California Governor Gavin Newsom and former First Lady Michelle Obama continue to hold the fourth and fifth spots among the favorites.
Here is the updated ranking of the top five candidates for the U.S. Presidential election, according to bookmaker William Hill.
| Potential Candidate | Odds at William Hill | Probability of Election |
| Donald Trump | 1.36 | 73.52% |
| Joe Biden | 6.00 | 16.66% |
| Kamala Harris | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Gavin Newsom | 17.00 | 5.88% |
| Michelle Obama | 21.00 | 4.76% |
It’s worth noting that just a few months ago, Trump and Biden were neck and neck in bookmakers’ rankings, with odds of 2.0 and 2.1 respectively.
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