Google Gemini Leads AI Betting Markets as ChatGPT Loses Ground

The betting market has erupted into a new race — this time over artificial intelligence. According to the Italian-American outlet La Voce di New York, wagers on AI models surpassed $20 million in August. These bets revolve around predicting which neural network will come out on top at the end of the month, for example by earning the most votes on dedicated platforms. Such wagers are placed on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which specialize in non-sporting events.

Kalshi’s data shows that the overwhelming majority of participants — about 88% — are backing Google’s Gemini.

By comparison, only around 5% of wagers favor ChatGPT, while Grok accounts for less than 1%. These figures are partly shaped by results from LMArena, a site where users compare AI models in blind tests.

Some players have managed to make substantial profits. The Wall Street Journal reports that American bettor Foster McCoy has earned $170,000 on Kalshi since early 2025. One of his most successful recent wagers was on Google Gemini winning the “Best AI of the Month” market.

According to crypto outlet Cointelegraph, Gemini’s rise is fueled by recent upgrades that improved its reasoning and writing abilities. Against the backdrop of GPT-5’s rocky debut and criticism of Grok, these changes have made Google’s AI model a clear favorite among traders.

Still, the market remains volatile — yesterday’s favorite may lose ground overnight. While Gemini currently attracts the bulk of wagers, the final outcome remains unpredictable, hinging on the latest updates and how quickly companies react.