American Gaming Association Puts Tax Revenue Losses From Prediction Markets at $1 Billion

^{Pictured: Bill Miller, Chief Executive of the American Gaming Association}

The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that US states may have missed out on more than $1 billion in tax revenue because of the growth of prediction markets, AGA President and Chief Executive Bill Miller said on CNBC.

The figure refers to money that, according to the AGA, could have flowed to state coffers and tribal gaming operators from regulated gambling activity and been used for public projects.

Miller said prediction markets were effectively competing with bookmakers in sports betting while avoiding a comparable tax and regulatory burden.

He described the platforms as “backdoor sports betting” and said they operated with minimal oversight compared with licensed bookmakers.

Kalshi disputed the AGA’s calculations.

Company spokesperson Elisabeth Diana called the estimate “fake math from casinos”, saying casino operators were worried about losing their dominant position.

She also noted that US gaming industry revenue reached a record $78.7 billion last year.

The dispute over prediction markets in the United States centres on who has authority over contracts tied to the outcomes of sporting events. Some states regard them as a form of sports betting and argue that they should be regulated under state gambling laws. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), by contrast, treats such contracts as instruments within its regulatory remit.

Several states have already sued prediction market platforms, accusing them of violating local gambling laws. The CFTC, in turn, has filed lawsuits against states it says are interfering with its regulatory powers.

US President Donald Trump has previously backed the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets.