This Is Why Bookies Change & Frozen Their Odds

Bookies adjust the odds they offer over time. This reflects the dynamic nature of betting, where you have to estimate the probabilities of different outcomes in sports. These probabilities are not fixed, but vary depending on various factors.

Note: Odds can change before and during the game (pre-match and live).

What Causes Pre-Match Odds Shifts?

• Player status: Injuries, suspensions, or disqualifications of key players can affect the team’s strength and strategy.
• Team form: Recent performance or results can indicate the team’s confidence and momentum.
• Lineup changes: Alterations in the starting lineup or the bench can change the team’s style and balance.
• Insider info: Leaks or tips about the team’s condition or motivation can reveal their readiness and focus.
• Rumors: Speculations or accusations about a potential match-fixing scenario can cast doubt on the integrity and fairness of the game.
• Bookie errors: Mistakes or oversights in odds calculation can lead to corrections and adjustments.

Example: Bayern’s star striker is sidelined for a month with an injury, and they face a strong rival next. The odds for Bayern’s victory jumped from 2.1 to 2.42 after the injury update.

Why Live Betting Odds Move?

The current score difference between the teams or players is the main factor that affects the live odds.

Example: Atletico was the favorite with odds of 2.45 before the game vs. Real Sociedad, who had odds of 2.8. Real Sociedad scored 2 goals in the 1st half, and their odds dropped to 1.26. Atletico’s odds rose to 12. Real Sociedad netted a third goal in the 78th minute, and Atletico’s odds skyrocketed to 25.

Other factors that influence live betting odds:

• Penalty or free kick opportunities
• Red or yellow cards and substitutions
• Match-fixing rumors or evidence
• Injury time or extra time (outcome harder to change)

Live odds can swing dramatically due to minor game events that can change the outcome. The bookmaker’s analytics team needs to evaluate the effect of any factors fast and precisely, as smarter bets by bettors can cut the bookie’s profits.

Why are Odds Frozen or Removed?

Betting odds removed

Sometimes, live odds can be unavailable, even if the game is still on. This can happen because of technical issues, market changes, or suspicious activity. Here’s the lowdown:

1. Key game moments (e.g. penalties, late-game drama). Betting is paused to prevent smart bettors from exploiting the odds lag. The freeze closes this gap. However, sometimes the reason is technical glitches on the bookmaker’s end.
2. One-sided game or near game end (e.g. 5-0 lead, 0-2 deficit in injury time). Match result bet is removed – as outcome is almost certain, other bets remain (e.g., totals, handicaps, etc.).
3. Fixed match suspicion (e.g. rumors, evidence, unusual behavior). If there are any doubts about the match’s integrity, the operator can stop taking bets anytime to protect their integrity and reputation (depending on when the match-fix evidence emerged).

Note: Confirmed fixed matches invalidate all bets and payouts.

FAQ