Kalshi Weather Markets Head Toward $1.1 Billion as Experts Warn of Risks

Weather and climate prediction markets are emerging as one of the fastest-growing categories on Kalshi. Over the past year, trading volume in these markets has surged 500% and is on pace to reach $1.1 billion in annualized volume, according to The Guardian.

Across Kalshi and Polymarket, users can trade contracts on temperatures, long-term climate outcomes and natural disasters. As the sector grows, climate scientists are raising concerns about the potential risks.

Kaitlyn Trudeau, a climate scientist at the nonprofit Climate Central, argues that gamifying disasters can distance people from their real-world consequences and reduce empathy for those affected.

Michael Mann, a climatologist at the University of Pennsylvania, warned that monetizing such events could create perverse incentives, particularly for malicious actors, and potentially fuel conspiracy theories about weather manipulation.

Markets involving natural disasters remain particularly controversial. During the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, trading volume on related Polymarket contracts reached $1.2 million. Kalshi has never offered wildfire markets, although it continues to expand its broader weather and climate offerings.

The platform has also struck a deal with The Weather Company, which operates The Weather Channel app and weather.com. Under the agreement, Kalshi will use the company’s meteorological data to verify the outcomes of weather-related markets, while Kalshi’s market-implied probabilities will be incorporated into select experiences in The Weather Channel app and on weather.com. The app is used by more than 330 million people worldwide.

Kalshi says prediction markets can complement traditional weather forecasting. Polymarket, meanwhile, argues that such markets can provide useful information as disasters unfold.

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