Ballon d’Or 2025: Betting Odds, Predictions, Favorites, Date and Venue

The 2025 Ballon d’Or will take place on Monday, September 22 at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris — the iconic venue that’s now synonymous with football’s biggest night. As in recent years, the ceremony is co-organized by UEFA and Groupe Amaury, the publisher of France Football and L’Équipe.

The award recognizes the best player over the course of a full domestic season (not a calendar year), meaning performances from August 2024 to June 2025 will be considered.

For those wanting to watch the Ballon d’Or 2025 live, the ceremony will be streamed for free on L’Équipe’s official YouTube channel.

Théâtre du Châtelet, Paris

Best Bookmakers for Betting on the Ballon d’Or 2025

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1xBet

1xBet offers a wide range of betting options on individual football awards, including detailed markets for the Ballon d’Or. You can bet not only on the winner but also on who will make the top three. Early odds are available well in advance of the ceremony, letting you grab value before favorites shift.

Stake

Stake combines crypto betting with lightning-fast withdrawals and a clean, modern interface. Ballon d’Or bets are available under the “Specials” section, and the 10% weekly cashback is great for minimizing losses on risky underdog picks.

MegaPari

MegaPari provides flexible welcome bonuses that can be used for award markets like the Ballon d’Or. What really stands out is their alternative lines — for example, head-to-head bets such as Mbappé vs. Haaland — which add depth to your strategy beyond just picking the winner.

Melbet

Melbet offers early access to Ballon d’Or betting markets, often before most competitors. Bettors can choose from multiple outcome types, including top-3 finish or head-to-head comparisons. With a solid welcome bonus and periodic free bet promos, Melbet remains a reliable option for fans looking to place long-term futures on football’s most prestigious individual award.

BetWinner

BetWinner frequently boosts odds on major events like the Ballon d’Or. The site offers clearly structured award categories and a fast interface, allowing bettors to easily navigate markets and place bets on both favorites and dark horses.

Ballon d’Or 2025 Betting Odds and Favorites

At 1xBet, the market is listed as “Holder of the Ballon d’Or 2025”. Here’s how the latest betting odds look:

Ousmane Dembele — 33% Chance of Winning

Dembele is now the front-runner for the Ballon d’Or after a phenomenal campaign as PSG’s key attacker. He’s carried Luis Enrique’s side into their first-ever UEFA Champions League final, knocking out Arsenal in the semis. If PSG win their first-ever UCL title, and he performs in the final, he could claim France’s first Ballon d’Or since Benzema in 2022.

Ousmane Dembele and actor Jamel Debbouze

Lamine Yamal — 23% Chance of Winning

Right behind him is Lamine Yamal. At just 17, he’s had a remarkable season. He helped Barcelona win La Liga, played a key role in big games like El Clasico, and proved himself in the Champions League. Even though Barca didn’t reach the final, his level of performance has kept him in the spotlight. He and Dembele are now joint-favorites.

Gianluigi Donnarumma — 16% Chance of Winning

No goalkeeper has won the Ballon d’Or since Lev Yashin in 1963, but Gianluigi Donnarumma is making a real case. PSG’s No. 1 has been outstanding throughout their Champions League run. If PSG go all the way in Europe and Donnarumma maintains his form, he could make history as the first goalkeeper in over 60 years to claim the Ballon d’Or.

Raphinha — 14% Chance of Winning

Few had Raphinha on their shortlist a few months ago. Now, he’s impossible to ignore: he finished the season with UCL 13 goals and was one of the top scorers of the tournament, even though Barcelona were knocked out in the semifinals. He’s proven he’s among the best attackers in Europe this season.

Lautaro Martínez — 12% Chance of Winning

Then there’s Lautaro Martínez. He’s had a good, not great, individual season. But he’s been crucial for Inter, who are still in the title race in Serie A and also in the Champions League final against PSG. The truth is, he depends on team success more than individual numbers. If Inter beat PSG and win the Champions League, and then go on to win the new Club World Cup, he’ll have a case. But that’s a big if.

AI Prediction for Ballon d’Or 2025

Gambling Park asked one of the world’s most well-known AI models — ChatGPT — to share its view on the top contenders. Here’s the response:

If a favorite for the Ballon d’Or 2025 were to be named right now, it would be Ousmane Dembélé: he has the best set of club trophies, high individual statistics, and the lowest odds from bookmakers.

Salah is the “if-the-favorite-stumble” candidate: the Premier League title and records give him a reserve of votes.

Yamal is the main competitor: youth + the associative effect of the “new Barça era”.

Lamine Yamal

Why not someone else?

Kylian Mbappé has dropped out of the top 3 even with the bookmakers after his winter injury and move to Real Madrid.

Raphinha and Pedri hit their form too late: without a European cup, their chances are slimmer.

Lautaro Martínez needs major victories for Inter. Serie A and the Coppa Italia were lost, and the Supercoppa also went to Milan.

Previous Ballon d’Or Award Results

The reigning champion is Rodri, Manchester City’s midfield general. He secured his first-ever Ballon d’Or in 2024 after guiding City to a historic treble, becoming the first Spanish player to win since Luis Suárez in 1960.

Here are the previous Ballon d’Or Award results:

Rodri, winner Ballon d’Or 2024

Who Has Won the Most Ballon d’Or Awards?

Historically, Lionel Messi holds the record with 8 Ballon d’Or titles — making Argentina the most successful nation (all won by Messi himself).

Behind him is Cristiano Ronaldo, who has won the Ballon d’Or 5 times. Together, Messi and Ronaldo dominated the award for over a decade. Other notable multiple winners include:

• Michel Platini (France) – 3 wins
• Johan Cruyff (Netherlands) – 3 wins
• Marco van Basten (Netherlands) – 3 wins

What Other Awards Will Be Handed Out at Ballon d’Or 2025?

The award itself comes with no direct prize money, but winning the Ballon d’Or significantly boosts a player’s marketability, contract value, and legacy. Alongside the main award, additional trophies will be presented for: Best Female Player, Kopa Trophy (best young player under 21), Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), and Club of the Year.

Why Is It Called the Ballon d’Or?

“Ballon d’Or” translates to “Golden Ball” in French. The name originates from the trophy itself, which is literally a golden football mounted on a stone base.

Originally, only European players were eligible, but the rules changed in 1995 to allow non-European players based in European clubs. In 2007, eligibility expanded globally, making it the ultimate individual honor in world football.