Ballon d’Or 2026: Who Will Win and Who to Bet On?

Ceremony date: October 26, 2026
Location: London Palladium Theatre, London, England
Edition: 70th Ballon d’Or
Organizers: France Football and UEFA

The Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony will be held outside France for the first time in the award’s history. The event will take place on October 26 at the London Palladium Theatre in London, marking the 70th anniversary of the prize created by France Football in 1956.

The move to London is symbolic. The city is hosting the ceremony in honor of Stanley Matthews, the English footballer who became the first Ballon d’Or winner. Since 2024, the award has been co-organized by France Football and UEFA.

For the 2026 award, performances between August 3, 2025 and July 19, 2026 are taken into account. That means the voting period includes both the 2025/26 club season and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Ballon d’Or 2026: Where to Bet

To find the best available Ballon d’Or 2026 odds and bonuses, compare offers from trusted sportsbooks before placing a wager. Gambling Park has selected reliable operators with markets on the award and strong prices on the leading contenders.

Top-rated sportsbooks for Ballon d’Or betting:

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Ballon d’Or 2026 Betting Odds and Favorites

Harry Kane remains the clear 1xBet favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Kylian Mbappé is now his closest challenger, while Lamine Yamal sits third in the market at longer odds.

Here are the latest available 1xBet odds:

Player	1xBet Odds	Implied Chance	Profit on $100 Bet
Harry Kane	1.40	71.4%	$40
Kylian Mbappé	3.00	33.3%	$200
Lamine Yamal	6.00	16.7%	$500
Lionel Messi	30.00	3.3%	$2,900
Rodri	100.00	1.0%	$9,900
Marc Cucurella	100.00	1.0%	$9,900
Fabián Ruiz	100.00	1.0%	$9,900

Implied probabilities exclude bookmaker margin and may total over 100%.

Harry Kane — 71% Chance of Winning

Strengths:

▲ scored 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern in 2025/26, including 36 in the Bundesliga and 14 in the Champions League;
▲ won the European Golden Shoe and finished as the Bundesliga top scorer for the third consecutive season;
▲ helped Bayern win the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and Franz Beckenbauer Supercup;
▲ scored six goals for England at the 2026 World Cup, where the team finished third.

Weaknesses:

▼ Bayern did not win the Champions League;
▼ England failed to win the World Cup, while Yamal and Rodri won the tournament with Spain.

Kane remains the clear 1xBet favorite at 1.40, giving him an implied chance of 71.4%. His case combines exceptional goalscoring numbers, three trophies with Bayern and another six goals at the World Cup.

Kylian Mbappé — 33% Chance of Winning

Strengths:

▲ scored 42 goals in 44 appearances for Real Madrid in 2025/26;
▲ finished as La Liga’s top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League’s top scorer with 15;
▲ won the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot after scoring ten goals;
▲ became the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history with 22 goals.

Weaknesses:

▼ Real Madrid finished the season without a major trophy;
▼ France finished fourth at the World Cup;
▼ unlike Kane, Yamal and Rodri, his outstanding individual statistics were not accompanied by a major team title during the voting period.

Mbappé has moved into second place in the 1xBet market. His odds of 3.00 imply a 33.3% chance of winning, with his goalscoring record in La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup providing the strongest case against Kane.

Lamine Yamal — 17% Chance of Winning

Strengths:

▲ won the 2026 World Cup with Spain, the biggest team trophy available during the voting period;
▲ helped Barcelona win La Liga and was named the 2025/26 LaLiga Player of the Season;
▲ scored 16 goals and provided 12 assists in La Liga, his best league season so far;
▲ at just 19, a Ballon d’Or victory would add another historic achievement to his career.

Weaknesses:

▼ scored only one goal and provided no assists at the World Cup despite Spain winning the tournament;
▼ his individual scoring numbers are significantly lower than Kane’s and Mbappé’s;
▼ Rodri was named the best player of the World Cup.

Yamal is now third in the 1xBet market at 6.00, an implied chance of 16.7%. His strongest arguments remain Spain’s World Cup triumph, Barcelona’s La Liga title and his Player of the Season award in Spain.

Lionel Messi — 3% Chance of Winning

Strengths:

▲ scored eight goals and provided four assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup;
▲ finished the tournament as its second-highest scorer, behind only Kylian Mbappé;
▲ helped Argentina reach the World Cup final;
▲ helped Inter Miami win the 2025 MLS Cup and was named MLS Cup MVP;
▲ won the 2025 MLS Golden Boot with 29 goals and recorded 48 goal contributions in the regular season;
▲ is an eight-time Ballon d’Or winner.

Weaknesses:

▼ Argentina lost the 2026 World Cup final;
▼ several leading rivals won major European club trophies or domestic league titles during the voting period.

Messi produced another outstanding World Cup, but 1xBet now prices him at 30.00, an implied chance of 3.3%. That leaves him well behind Kane, Mbappé and Yamal in the current market.

Rodri — 1% Chance of Winning

Strengths:

▲ captained Spain to the 2026 World Cup title;
▲ was named the best player of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, winning the adidas Golden Ball;
▲ completed 747 passes — more than any other player at the tournament — and was central to a Spain team that conceded only one goal;
▲ won both the FA Cup and League Cup with Manchester City.

Weaknesses:

▼ Manchester City did not win either the Premier League or the Champions League;
▼ his individual attacking numbers are far below those of the leading forwards;
▼ much of his case for the award is built around his World Cup performance.

Despite captaining Spain to the World Cup title and winning the tournament’s Golden Ball, Rodri has fallen well behind the leading contenders in the 1xBet market. His current odds of 100.00 imply a 1.0% chance of winning.

Gambling Park Verdict

Safest bet: Harry Kane to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or — 1.40
Alternative bet: Kylian Mbappé to win — 3.0

Kane remains the clear favorite after an exceptional season for Bayern and six goals at the World Cup. Mbappé is now his closest challenger in the 1xBet market, backed by outstanding individual numbers: he finished as the top scorer in La Liga, the Champions League and the 2026 World Cup. His main weakness is the lack of a major team trophy during the voting period.