Yamal Confident of Ballon d’Or Chances, but Prediction Markets Back Kane

^{Lamine Yamal}

Traders on two of the world’s largest prediction markets do not appear to share Lamine Yamal’s confidence that he deserves the 2026 Ballon d’Or. The Barcelona star made the comments in an interview with football pundit and TV presenter Jorge Valdano on Movistar Plus+. El País published an excerpt from the interview.

“I think there are probably two players who are the best in the world. And this year, I think I deserve the award because of what I’ve won. For me, Mbappé and I are the two best players in the world. That’s completely clear to me, and everyone who watches the games knows it,” Yamal said.

However, Harry Kane remains the favorite on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, where users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events. Kane’s chances of winning are currently priced at around 60%, compared with 18% for Yamal and 10% for Mbappé. Trading volume has exceeded $35.4 million.

That means Polymarket traders currently rate Kane’s chances at more than three times Yamal’s.

The picture is similar on Kalshi. Kane also leads there at around 60%, followed by Yamal at 19% and Mbappé at 13%. Trading volume stands at approximately $8.8 million.

The Ballon d’Or ceremony will take place in London on October 26, 2026. The award is organized by French football magazine France Football in partnership with UEFA. The winner will be chosen by football journalists, with one representative from each of the 100 highest-ranked countries in the men’s FIFA rankings.