US Regulator Bars Prediction Markets From Using Sportsbook Odds

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned prediction market platforms against using sportsbook-style odds to promote event contracts, Bloomberg reports.

The restriction concerns the American odds format that uses “+” and “−” signs. For example, +200 is equivalent to decimal odds of 3.00, while −200 corresponds to 1.50.

The CFTC requires prediction markets to display either the contract price itself or the implied probability of an outcome as a percentage, rather than sportsbook odds.

The regulator believes that presenting contracts in a sportsbook-style format could mislead users about the type of transaction they are entering into.

In its letter, the CFTC also cited research suggesting that American-style odds may encourage bettors to make riskier decisions. The study examined sports betting in general rather than prediction markets specifically.

Kalshi said it complies with CFTC requirements and would follow the regulator’s guidance. Polymarket did not immediately respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment.

The new requirements come amid ongoing legal disputes over the status of prediction markets in the United States. The CFTC and prediction market operators argue that users of such platforms are not placing bets but buying and selling contracts whose prices depend on the outcome of a particular event. On that basis, they maintain that the platforms should be regulated federally as financial markets.

Authorities in several states disagree, arguing that prediction markets effectively offer gambling without the required state licenses.