Trucking Company Owner Uses Prediction Market Bets to Offset Rising Gas Prices

^{Trucking / © Shutterstock}

Small businesses in the U.S. are using prediction markets to help offset rising costs. According to Forbes, entrepreneurs are drawing on their industry knowledge to bet on price changes, using profits from successful bets to cover additional expenses.

One example is Nick Juliano, owner of Juliano & Son Contracting, a construction and trucking company operating in New Jersey and New York. The company’s trucks run all day and need frequent refueling, making fuel one of its biggest expenses.

Juliano says rising fuel prices used to leave him with two options: accept lower profits or charge customers more. Other small businesses across the U.S. face similar pressures. According to the National Federation of Independent Business, around 80% of small business owners say energy costs have a significant impact on their operations.

Juliano has spent years tracking fuel prices and the factors that drive them.

He decided to put that knowledge to use on prediction market platform Kalshi, buying contracts on whether the average price of gas would exceed a certain threshold.

Here is a hypothetical example, excluding fees:

1. A business owner spends $500 betting that gas prices will rise above a specified level.
2. Prices exceed that level, adding $2,000 to the company’s fuel bill.
3. The bet wins, paying out $2,000.
4. That payout covers the entire increase in fuel costs, but the original $500 stake still needs to be accounted for.
5. Without the bet, the price increase would have cost him an extra $2,000. With the winning bet, his net additional cost is $500 — a saving of $1,500.
6. If the bet loses, he loses his $500 stake and must pay the full fuel bill out of business funds.

Juliano initially traded contracts tied to the average U.S. gas price. He later asked Kalshi to create a separate market for New Jersey, where his company operates. Gas prices in the state can move differently from the national average, making the local figure a better reflection of his business’s costs. In response, Kalshi launched daily and weekly contracts tied to New Jersey gas prices.

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