Polymarket Traders Speculate on France Declaring a State of Emergency

Trading volume across three Polymarket markets forecasting a possible state of emergency in France topped $123,000 in the two days since they launched on October 18.

The protests began over the rising cost of living and declining quality of public services. According to Reuters, school students were the first to take to the streets in September, protesting teacher shortages and poor school conditions. They were later joined by university students, trade unions, farmers, pensioners and supporters of the Yellow Vests movement. Their demands also included addressing inequality and government spending.

On October 17, demonstrations took place across the country. According to France’s Ministry of the Interior, around 550,000 people took part in the protests, while the General Confederation of Labour (CGT) put the figure at 800,000.

According to the Associated Press (AP), at least 2,400 people were arrested following the unrest, and around 3,000 businesses were damaged or looted.

On October 19, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the government was considering local curfews and had not ruled out declaring a state of emergency. For now, the government favors targeted restrictions in specific areas rather than nationwide measures.

Polymarket offers three markets with different deadlines for a potential declaration of a state of emergency. Traders currently assign the following probabilities to the outcome:

• By October 21: 1% probability. Trading volume: $31,608.
• By October 31: 14% probability. Trading volume: $63,339.
• By December 31: 19% probability. Trading volume: $28,610.

The October 31 market has attracted the highest trading volume. Meanwhile, traders put the probability of a state of emergency being declared by the end of the year at 19%.

Under Polymarket’s rules, a market resolves positively only if a state of emergency is officially declared in France. Local curfews and other security measures do not, on their own, meet the resolution criteria.