Chances of Kim Jong Un Leaving Power Jump Fivefold on Polymarket Following Death Rumours

^{Kim Jong Un, North Korean leader}

The probability of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un leaving power before the end of 2026 rose to 17.4% on the prediction platform Polymarket. The increase began on 19 October amid rumours that he was seriously ill, with the odds peaking on 20 October.

The surge followed social media reports alleging that Kim had suffered a brain haemorrhage, fallen into a coma and been rushed to a hospital in Beijing. Some users went further, claiming that he had already died.

The market covers not only Kim Jong Un’s death but also other circumstances that could result in him losing power by 31 December 2026.

Total trading volume reached $429,556. Following the brief spike, the probability of Kim leaving power fell back to 6%.

However, there is no credible evidence to support the rumours about Kim’s illness or death. According to South Korean news agency Yonhap, South Korea’s diplomatic and security authorities have no information confirming the reports.

On 20 October, North Korean state media also released photographs of Kim Jong Un at a clothing and footwear exhibition in Pyongyang. According to state media reports, he attended the event with his daughter on 19 October. However, the circumstances under which the photographs were taken have not been independently verified.

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