Polymarket Beat US Sportsbooks on World Cup Pricing With a 2.7% Margin

^{Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market}

Polymarket offered the best World Cup pricing in the US, with an average margin of just 2.7%, according to Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender. His analysis, cited by Casino.org, compared Polymarket’s prices with odds from leading US sportsbooks.

According to the analysis, Polymarket had an average margin of 2.70%, the lowest among the platforms reviewed.

A lower margin generally means that prices are closer to market-implied probability and more favourable for users.

Kalshi followed with an average margin of 4.71%. Among traditional sportsbooks, DraftKings recorded 4.97%, FanDuel 5.07%, BetMGM 5.64% and Fanatics 6.14%.

If Polymarket is excluded from the comparison, DraftKings most often offered the best prices among traditional sportsbooks, doing so in 38 of 104 matches. FanDuel, one of the most popular sportsbooks in the US, offered the best prices in only seven matches.

Bender linked Polymarket’s advantage to lower costs and growing liquidity on the platform. A larger number of market participants helped create more competitive prices on match outcomes.

“Liquidity creates a positive cycle: better prices attract more participants, and more participants make prices even more competitive,” Casino.org quoted Bender as saying.

According to estimates from H2 Gambling Capital, prediction markets accounted for around 27% of the legal US online betting market during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Meanwhile, Kalshi, Polymarket’s competitor in the prediction market space, attracted around 3 million users during the tournament.

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