Nearly 70% of Wallets Lost Money on Polymarket’s 2026 World Cup Winner Market

^{Spain, winners of the 2026 World Cup}

Around 67% of the cryptocurrency addresses that traded on Polymarket’s 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market recorded losses, according to calculations published on X by blockchain analyst defioasis.eth.

The analyst reviewed the results of more than 194,000 addresses and found that around 130,000 lost money. Most losses were relatively small: 114,000 addresses lost less than $100 each, with the average loss in that group below $10.

A total of 43 addresses lost more than $100,000, with their combined losses exceeding $15 million.

Around one-third of the addresses analyzed made a profit. For most of them, earnings did not exceed $100, while the average profit in that group was below $5.

A total of 54 addresses earned more than $100,000, generating combined profits of over $22 million. Another five addresses made more than $1 million each.

Overall, most addresses recorded relatively modest gains or losses. The largest profits and losses were concentrated among only a few dozen market participants.

However, the figures published by defioasis.eth should be treated as estimates. The analyst did not provide a detailed explanation of how the profit or loss for each address was calculated, making the data difficult to verify independently.

In addition, a single cryptocurrency address does not necessarily correspond to one individual. One trader may use several addresses, meaning the figures reflect wallet activity rather than the exact number of users who made or lost money.

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