OSCAR 2023: The Betting Odds are In!
Lina Almans
25 May 2022
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The 95th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday, March 12, 2023, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles.
With the Oscars just around the corner, bookmakers are in full swing to predict the winners in the major categories. We’ll be taking a look at the odds and probabilities of the top picks in the Best Film, Best Actress, Best Actor, and Best Director categories.
Best Film
According to bookmaker company Paddy Power, the favorite in the main Oscar category is «Everything Everywhere All at Once», a mixture of science fiction, comedy, and martial arts film by directors and screenwriters Daniel Shainert and Dan Kwong. The main heroine learns that she has the ability to see versions of herself from parallel universes and move between them, and must save them from destruction. This film received a rating of 1.36 (73.5% probability) from the betting company’s experts.

Second in line is Martin McDonagh’s «The Banshees of Inisherin». This is the story of two friends who become involved in a conflict on a remote Irish island. The bookmakers rate the chances of this tragicomedy winning at 5.50 (18.1% probability).

Third is «Top Gun: Maverick» starring Tom Cruise. The sequel to the legendary action film Best Shooter from 30 years ago returns Cruise and Val Kilmer to the pilot-tester’s chair and has already earned nearly 1.5 billion dollars at the box office. In addition to money from viewers, the film received support from bookmakers in the form of a coefficient of 8.50 (11.7% probability).

Best Actor
At the betting company SkyBet, the main contender for the award is considered to be the «Mummy» star Brendan Fraser. However, in 2022, the American actor played a 270-kilogram and very sad hero «The Whale» after a long hiatus and depression. The hero is trying to regain the trust of his daughter. Fraser received odds of 1.50 from the bookmakers (probability of 66.6%).

Colin Farrell is a little behind Fraser. Critics were impressed by his performance in «The Banshees of Inisherin», and the Venice Film Festival jury already named Farrell the best film actor. Colin received a personal award at the «Golden Globe» ceremony, so the bookmakers give him odds of 3.00 for an Oscar win. The statistical probability is 33.3%.
Closing the top-3 is Elvis Presley, or rather the actor who tried to recreate him, without significant external resemblance – Austin Butler. The 31-year-old American played the lead role in Baz Lurmann’s «Elvis» film. After the film’s release, Butler confessed that he hadn’t spoken to his family for three years and had taken vocal lessons from five different teachers for two years. Analysts gave Austin odds of 3.00 (probability of 33.3%).
Betting on the «Best Actor» category at the Oscars is still open, and the awards ceremony will take place on February 27th, 2022.
Best Actress
Bet365 betting company experts believe that Cate Blanchett will win in this category. She played the lead role in the movie «Tar», which tells the story of the first female conductor in the history of the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra over 2.5 hours. Blanchett is given odds of 1.66. The statistical probability was 60.2%.
Other nominees for the award include Michelle Yeoh for «All Everywhere and Right Now» (odds – 2.20, probability – 45.4%) and Andrea Riseborough for «For Lesley» (11.00; probability – 9%).

In the betting company William Hill, there is anticipation of a fierce competition between two candidates. Currently, the young authors of «All Everywhere and Right Now» – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – are slightly ahead, with odds of 1.83 (probability of 54%). Slightly behind is the seasoned Steven Spielberg, who made the confessional film «The Fabelmans». The odds on the author of the legendary «Jaws», «Jurassic Park», and «Saving Private Ryan» are 2.10 (probability of 47.6%).
Best Director
Significantly behind the Hollywood patriarch is Martin McDonagh with the script for «The Banshees of Inisherin» with odds of 8.00 (probability of 12.5%).
In conclusion, the favorite for the awards ceremony is the film from the multiverse «All Everywhere and Right Now». The film also has a chance to win awards for «Best Director», «Best Supporting Male Role» (Jonathan Quan), and «Best Actress» (Michelle Yeoh).