$4 Million Already Wagered on the Nobel Peace Prize: Trump Among the Favorites
Lina Almans
18 August 2025
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Photo: Donald Trump
Prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are taking bets on the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. According to market odds, U.S. President Donald Trump is currently the second favorite. His chances improved following last week’s summit in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Nobel Committee will announce the winner on October 10, with the award ceremony scheduled for December.
As of August 18, Trump holds a 12% chance of winning, placing him second among contenders. Just a month ago, he was third, with odds in the 6–7% range.
The frontrunner is Yulia Navalnaya, with a 19% chance. Other prominent names in the running include the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the Sudanese charity ERP, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and climate activist Greta Thunberg.
Betting activity on the prize has been substantial. On Polymarket, $1.4 million has been wagered, with $858,000 staked on Trump. On Kalshi, total bets amount to $3.3 million, including $386,000 backing the U.S. president.
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