Election Betting Trends: Can Bookies Really Predict the Winner?

Gambling Park analyzed into election betting trends to see just how accurate bookmakers are when predicting outcomes in political events. We focused on five recent U.S. presidential elections and five parliamentary elections in the U.K., looking at whether the betting odds reflect reality or if bettors and bookies alike are caught off guard by unexpected outcomes.

U.S. Presidential Elections Outcomes vs. Bookmaker Predictions

In the U.S., the presidential election is the most significant electoral event, held every four years in November. America’s two-party system usually involves candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties against each other, making each presidential race as much about party dominance as it is about individual candidates.

However, predicting these elections isn’t straightforward. The unique Electoral College system means it’s not just the popular vote that counts but also the distribution of votes across states. This has led to some notorious cases in U.S. history, where candidates with fewer popular votes have won the presidency by capturing the Electoral College majority.

Take the infamous 2000 election, for instance. Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote, yet Republican George W. Bush was declared president after a tight battle in the Electoral College.

George W. Bush and Al Gore

Despite these complexities, bookies have successfully forecasted the final outcome accurately in most recent U.S. presidential races. For our analysis, we specifically looked at bookmaker odds released at the start of November, just before Election Day, which is always held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

Summary: Out of the last five U.S. elections, bookmakers called it right four times (80% accuracy rate).

In 2016, bookmakers had Hillary Clinton as the strong favorite. Despite the odds, she lost to Donald Trump

UK Parliamentary Elections Accuracy

In the United Kingdom’s constitutional monarchy, the King or Queen holds a largely ceremonial role, while the true power rests with the Prime Minister, who leads the party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons after a General Election. 

This structure is familiar to those observing U.S. elections, though, with the UK’s own brand of fierce competition primarily between two parties: the Conservatives and Labour.

Parliamentary elections, commonly called the General Election, are direct elections for seats in the House of Commons. Here, the winning party is the one that secures the majority of these seats, determining the nation’s next Prime Minister.

Keir Starmer, who became Prime Minister in July 2024 after Labour’s election victory

Given extensive polling data available, betting operators in the UK are impressively accurate at forecasting election results. 

Our recent analysis highlights that betting markets correctly predicted the outcomes of the last five UK general elections (basing forecasts on odds from the lead-up to voting day). 

Summary: 5 out of 5 correct predictions (100% accuracy).

Conclusion

Our analysis shows that betting on political campaigns close to election day, particularly when betting on clear favorites, usually gives solid odds of winning. 

That said, odds for these bets are often quite low, appealing mostly to those comfortable placing large bets for modest returns. However, as seen in the 2016 U.S. presidential race, where Trump secured an unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton, upsets can and do happen — making political betting a risk that shouldn’t be overlooked.