Polymarket Gives Eisenkot 68% Chance of Becoming Israel’s Next PM, Netanyahu 20%

^{From left: Gadi Eisenkot, Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett}

Gadi Eisenkot was the clear favorite to become Israel’s prime minister after the parliamentary election, according to prediction platform Polymarket. A market snapshot on October 27 put his chances at 68%, with total trading volume reaching approximately $59 million.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed at 20%, leaving a 48-percentage-point gap between the two leading contenders.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett stood at 9%, while Avigdor Lieberman was priced at around 2%.

The market’s historical chart shows a reversal in traders’ expectations. Netanyahu led earlier in the year, but Eisenkot moved ahead during the summer. The latest section of the chart shows a sharp increase in Eisenkot’s implied probability alongside a decline in Netanyahu’s.

Screenshot: Polymarket

Israelis voted in parliamentary elections on October 27, choosing parties rather than directly electing a prime minister. The formation of the next government could take weeks or months as party leaders negotiate over potential coalitions.

Polymarket’s percentages reflect probabilities implied by trading prices, rather than opinion poll results or projected vote shares. The market concerns who will become prime minister after the election, rather than which party will win the most seats. Prices fluctuate as participants buy and sell positions.