Marine Le Pen Leads French Presidential Election Odds as Polymarket Trading Volume Nears $160 Million
Tania Levees
28 October 2026
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Marine Le Pen, French presidential candidate
Trading volume on Polymarket’s market for the winner of France’s 2027 presidential election has reached $158.5 million. Marine Le Pen is the current frontrunner, with the platform putting her chances of victory at 43%.
As of October 28, 2026, the leading contenders and their estimated chances of winning are:
- Marine Le Pen — 43%
- Édouard Philippe — 18%
- David Lisnard — 15.7%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon — 12%
- Raphaël Glucksmann — 3%
Other potential candidates trail significantly behind. Former French President François Hollande is given a 2% chance of winning, while Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally party, stands at just 1%.
A similar prediction market is available on the US-based platform Kalshi.
The top three contenders are the same on both platforms. On Kalshi, Le Pen leads with 47%, followed by Philippe at 15% and Lisnard at 14%. However, trading volume on Kalshi is significantly lower, at $1.3 million, compared with $158.3 million on Polymarket.
France’s presidential election is scheduled for 2027, with the first round set for April 18 and a potential runoff on May 2. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron cannot seek a third consecutive term, as the French Constitution prohibits it.
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