Kalshi Starts Taking Predictions on Drug Trial Results

^{Testing of a medical drug in a laboratory / © Shutterstock}

Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched markets focused on the results of medical drug trials and decisions by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on whether to approve them for use. The project is being carried out in partnership with analytics company AppliedXL.

Each market is dedicated to a specific event.

In particular, users can predict whether the FDA will approve ivonescimab, a drug developed by Summit Therapeutics for the treatment of one form of lung cancer, by the end of 2026.

Another market concerns the possible approval of anito-cel for the treatment of multiple myeloma.

Kalshi Market on anito-cel for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma

The outcomes of the markets will be settled based on pre-defined official sources. These include published trial results, an FDA approval letter or the results of an advisory committee vote at the regulator.

At the initial stage, Kalshi is opening a limited number of markets for drugs in late-stage trials. Each market is launched only after recruitment of volunteers for the relevant study has been completed.

This restriction was introduced so that forecasts published on the platform do not influence patients’ decisions on whether to participate in a trial, or doctors’ decisions on whether to recommend it to their patients.

To participate in the new markets, users will have to provide Kalshi with information about their place of work. The platform will use this data to identify people who may have access to non-public information about a drug or trial. Kalshi has not specified exactly how the verification process will work.