$/€ Kalshi Shuts Down Markets Linked to Slain Activist Charlie Kirk, While Polymarket Launches Bets on U.S. Civil War
Kate Marshal
16 September 2025
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Pictured: Charlie Kirk, the slain American activist
The death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has had an immediate impact on major U.S. prediction markets. According to Casino.org, Kalshi — a platform where users place bets on political events — has closed all markets tied to Kirk. Among them were contracts allowing users to speculate on whether he would run for political office. Currently, the page for those markets only shows an endless loading screen.
Reports that Kirk was fatally shot during an event at a university in Utah surfaced at around 2:20 p.m. local time.
Kalshi announced that any bets placed after that time would be voided, in order to prevent speculation based on information that had already become public.
At the same time, rival platform Polymarket launched a new market asking users to predict whether a civil war will break out in the United States by December 31, 2025. Despite the dramatic framing, an overwhelming majority of participants — nearly 97% — are betting on “no.”
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