Penalty Betting in Football Explained: A Full Guide

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Lina Almans

31 October 2024

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How to bet on a penalty

What Is Penalty Betting in Football?

Penalty betting involves placing wagers on outcomes related to penalties, such as whether a penalty will be awarded, if a specific penalty kick will be successful, or which team will take the first penalty in a shootout.

A penalty bet in football involves predicting 2 main types:

  • Penalty Kick: Awarded during regular time for a foul in the penalty area.
  • Penalty Shootout: Happens after extra time if the match is still tied.

Note: All bets on penalties (excluding penalty shootouts) are accepted during regular time! In football, this is 90 minutes including injury time.

Penalty shoot-out is a tie-breaking method to determine which team is awarded victory, which is taken after the extra time has ended.

Popular Penalty Bet Types — Explained

Betting on penalties in football is all about predicting key moments in the game. Here are some popular types of penalty bets at 1xBet:

  • Penalty Awarded (Yes/No)
Penalty awarded in betting

Simply bet on whether a penalty will be given during regular time. This bet is straightforward.

“Penalty Awarded – Yes”: You win if the ref calls a penalty. If there’s no penalty, the bet loses.

“Penalty Awarded – No”: The bet wins if no penalty is awarded in the game. But if a penalty gets called, this bet is a loss.

Now, let’s clear one thing up: this isn’t about betting on a goal being scored from the penalty, just the fact that the penalty kick will be awarded.

  • Team to Take First Penalty
Team to take first penalty in betting explained

Guess which team will take the first penalty (Team 1, Team 2, or no penalty) during regular time of play (just take, not necessarily score).

  • Team to Take First Penalty and Win the Match
Penalty in betting explained

You can bet Yes or No on whether the home team will not only take a penalty (just take, not necessarily score) in regulation time but also win the match during 90 mins + injury time of play. Both conditions have to be met. Similar bets are offered for Team 2.

  • Penalty Awarded and Sending Off
Penalty Awarded and Sending Off in betting

This bet revolves around a scenario where a penalty is awarded and a player is sent off with a red card. You can wager on whether this will happen (Yes/No) only during the match’s regular time. The player who is sent off doesn’t necessarily have to be the one who is the reason for the penalty. The bet will win if there has been both a penalty kick and a dismissal in the 90 mins + injury time during the match.

  • Team 1 to Score Penalty
Penalty Bet Types in Football

A bet on whether the home team will score a penalty goal in the match. These options are strictly for the 90 minutes + injury time of regular play. Similar bets are offered for Team 2.

  • Method of Qualifying (Penalty Shootout)
Penalty shootout in betting

You predict whether there will be a penalty shootout after the match. For you to win this bet, there shouldn’t be a winner after regular and extra time.

How to Find the Best Matches for Penalty Betting?

When it comes to penalty betting, two major factors come into play here: the playing style of the teams and the refereeing style of the officials assigned to the game.

Each of these is key — if the stats for either the ref or the teams don’t hint at a good chance of a penalty, it might be wise to skip betting on that match.

Even though football rules are universal, referees vary widely in their approach. Some are lenient, while others call fouls quicker, especially in the penalty box. Here’s a quick look at penalty stats for a few referees in the 2023/24 Premier League season:

Notice that it’s not just about the total penalties a ref calls; it’s about how often they do it relative to their games officiated. This percentage gives you a clearer picture of which refs might be more “penalty-prone”. For example, Michael Salisbury calls penalties in about 71% of his matches, while Jarred Gillett’s rate is around 33%.

Besides choosing the right league, you should also look at specific teams that frequently get penalties in their games. This data can be tracked by sites like Transfermarkt.

Screenshot: Penalties received stats in the 2023/24 season of Premier League:

Penalties received Premier League

How Does VAR Impact Penalties in Football?

Though there’s still a lack of deep studies on VAR’s exact effect, the trend speaks for itself. VAR lets referees review close calls in the penalty area, which means defenders are far less likely to get away with unnoticed fouls.

Since the adoption of VAR, there’s been a noticeable change in penalty frequency across leagues. Here’s a look at the average penalties awarded per match over several seasons:

The trend suggests that VAR has indeed increased penalty calls. However, if you’re betting on penalties, EPL and La Liga matches might not be your best bet since refs there are generally less likely to award them.

What to Look for When Betting on Penalties? Tips

  • Teams That Draw Fouls

Look for teams with strong offensive play or those that frequently draw fouls in the penalty area. Defensive teams and underdogs also tend to commit more fouls near their goal.

  • Tournament Position of the Teams

Teams fighting for top spots or survival are more likely to take risks, increasing the chances of errors in the penalty box. This is especially true for knockout cup matches.

  • Rivalry History

In derby matches, where local rivals face off, the passion and intensity are through the roof. This often results in a higher chance of penalties.

  • Live Match Dynamics

To boost your chances, follow the match live. If one team is constantly on the attack, defenders might start making mistakes and commit fouls in the penalty area. This can be a great sign for a penalty bet.

  • Referees Who Love the Whistle

Different referees have different thresholds for what they consider a foul in the penalty area.

For instance, in the Premier League, some refs give out way more penalties than others, even with the same number of matches officiated.

FAQ

What is penalty betting in football?

It’s betting on outcomes related to penalties, like if a penalty will be awarded or if a specific penalty kick will be successful.

Which sports are best for penalty betting?

Football is the most popular, but you can also bet on penalties in hockey and rugby.

Which teams are best for penalty betting?

Chelsea, Manchester City, and Arsenal are top choices In the Premier League.

Why did my penalty bet lose?

All bets on penalties (excluding penalty shootouts) are accepted during regular time! In football, this is 90 minutes including injury time.

How much should I wager for a penalty bet?

Stick to a flat betting strategy, meaning place the same amount on each bet, capped at 3% of your bankroll. This strat starts showing profits with a hit rate of about 40% or higher.

How do I make a successful penalty bet?

Analyze team and referee stats to identify games with a higher probability of a penalty kick being awarded. Keep in mind, this bet isn’t about betting on a goal from the penalty — just the awarding of the penalty itself.