Polymarket Probes Suspicious Bets on Netanyahu and His Likud Party

^{Benjamin Netanyahu / © Shutterstock}

Prediction market platform Polymarket has launched an investigation into suspicious bets on Israel’s parliamentary election. Some traders have already cashed out more than $100,000 in profits, Bloomberg reports.

According to Bloomberg, hundreds of newly created accounts placed bets on Likud winning the most seats in parliament and Benjamin Netanyahu remaining prime minister on October 27, shortly before polls closed.

Bloomberg identified more than 600 crypto wallets that were created on the same day and had no previous betting history.

After exit polls showed Likud performing better than initially expected, the value of the contracts increased. Some traders sold their positions before the final election results were announced, cashing out more than $100,000 in total. Others are still holding positions with unrealized gains.

Polymarket is reviewing dozens of suspicious accounts to determine whether the traders had access to nonpublic information about the election results before placing their bets. No evidence of insider trading has emerged so far.

As of October 30, Polymarket traders priced Likud’s chances of winning the most seats in parliament at around 99%, while Netanyahu’s chances of leading the next government stood at 43%.

The difference reflects Israel’s electoral system, in which voters elect political parties rather than the prime minister directly. Even if Likud wins the most seats, Netanyahu will still need support from other parties to form a governing coalition.