Anonymous Polymarket Traders May Have Artificially Inflated Netanyahu’s Chances of Remaining Prime Minister

^{Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu / © Shutterstock}

Anonymous Polymarket users may have artificially boosted the displayed odds of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in power after the upcoming election through large-scale purchases, according to an investigation by Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Journalists focused on a user operating under the name 25xp. Shortly before the United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, the trader backed that outcome at extremely low odds and made about $200,000.

The trade raised suspicions that the user may have had access to non-public information, although there is no evidence linking the account to government officials.

The same user later invested around $40,000 in contracts predicting that Netanyahu would remain prime minister after the election. The account was responsible for roughly a quarter of all purchases supporting the incumbent leader.

Another account, OnlyBibi2026, also placed large trades.

On Polymarket, a contract’s price reflects the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring. The more contracts traders buy in support of a candidate, the higher the displayed probability becomes.

As a result, a large trader can create the impression that a politician’s chances are rising even when opinion polls suggest otherwise.

At the time of publication, Polymarket put Netanyahu’s chances of remaining prime minister at 35%.

Such trades do not directly affect voting or the counting of ballots. They only change the platform’s market prices and may influence public perceptions of the election campaign. The identities of the account holders and any possible links to the Israeli government have not been established.

Israel’s parliamentary election is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Voters will elect 120 members of the Knesset, while the prime minister will be the politician able to form a coalition and secure the support of a parliamentary majority.

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